The Rockets, the recession, and NBA Free Agency 2009
The Dream Shake is my assigned NBA blog. I can’t really say it any more succinctly than that. I am very indifferent towards it. Occasionally there is a good post. Most of the time my eyes glaze over it. However, my eyes wandered upon this post, mainly due to the fact that it was a very early discussion of the Rockets upcoming offseason choices. grungedave has put together a battle plan that would have looked terrific…if it was 2003.
The recession hit baseball hard this offseason, perennial all-stars like Bobby Abreu went from asking for $60 million to getting $5 million. Some, like Pudge Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez, are still unemployed even though spring training has been in progress for weeks. That’s pretty bad, but it’s nothing compared to what is about to happen to the NBA. Indiana has already made noises about having to think about some different ideas, weak and poor teams are playing in front of 1/4 filled arenas, and the rich teams are trying to maneuver their contracts around to get in on the 2010 free agent class. Combine this with one of the worst free agent classes in recent memory, where asides from whichever one of Carlos Boozer or Paul Millsap the Jazz have to part with, the most eatablished non-Artest players are a pair of aging combo forwards (Lamar Odom and Shawn Marion), and you’ve got a recipe for an even bigger buyer’s market than baseball just had.
In fact, for all the hoopla surrounding Boozer and his early-termination option, if I were his agent I would tell him that he better suck it up and love Utah for another season, because there is no way I’m turning down 12.66 million for one year with the way this market has drastically changed. Then again, if I were Carlos Boozer’s agent, and I was scummy enough to orchestrate the backstabbing that he performed on the Cavaliers (can you imagine if they still had him?), I probably would think I could spin the wheel again and get lucky. Then, I’d probably orchestrate a new ponzi scheme.
First, lets take the Ron Artest situation. You’d think at the very least, Ron Artest is a lock for the mid-level exception somewhere in the NBA. But where? The Lakers could have an opening, but they are probably going to want to keep Trevor Ariza instead, and that’s before we even think about Odom. The Knicks could use that MSG money, but at this point they’re probably better off going after Ariza or Millsap or even a Brandon Bass, especially considering the possibility Artest declines and hits into their 2010 plan. He’d look nice on the Blazers, but they wouldn’t even shift their LaFrentz contract for Vince Carter at the deadline, and he’s a better fit for them than Artest is on paper. Celtics? They wouldn’t sign James Posey for that money last offseason, granted Artest is better. He’d also be a sixth man for them. Dallas? Has to worry about Kidd first.
How about people who will have money? Detroit? They’ve already got 3 good wings in Hamilton, Prince, and Stuckey. Would Artest play for Toronto? Miami? Are those situations really any better than Houston? Dave came up with 3/32. Like I said, I think that’s a reasonable offer in 2003. In this market, I could see it being closer to 3/21. All the Rockets have to do is be willing to go a little over the mid-level, because I can’t see any of the teams that are under it being willing to spend on Artest when they could wait for 2010 and hop in those various sweepstakes. It may sound crazy, but it’s the perfect storm for the Rockets. Artest is not a franchise player, he’s on the older side (although he has less miles thanks to the Brawl), and teams that would normally drive up the bidding don’t even have the money to pretend to do so. Artest probably can’t even pull off a Josh Childress either, as Americans over there spent the year getting released from their contracts and trying to get their promised money left and right, so he essentially has zero leverage.
As far as locking up Luis Scola, I don’t get the big rush. Scola is a really good player, but he essentially has spent the last two years being a combo with Carl Landry. Yes, it’s partially because he picks up so many fouls, but you could argue that the Rockets have little to no drop-off when Landry is out on the floor. Landry just tested the FA waters last offseason (granted, with teams worried about his knee and with only half a season of production) and could only find 3/9 even though he was six years younger than Scola. Is Scola’s contract that out of line? Moreover, if Scola hits free agency in 2010, do you think anyone will be calling him on day one besides the Rockets? This really seems like a non-issue. It’s nice to reward your good players, but Scola hasn’t complained about his deal and the Rockets have a younger, similar power forward waiting in the wings. I’m not saying that Scola won’t be brought back, but I don’t see any reason to rush into it.
Von Wafer is a more interesting situation. He’s only going to be 24 after next year, and he’s emerged as a very good offense first wing. He’s not touted as defensive stopper, but he’s got a little height in his favor. From my completely subjective defensive analysis, he has been nothing special, but he doesn’t do anything particularly bad. The thing is, Wafer is a very good fit for this current Rockets squad, but Tracy McGrady dictates a lot of his future value. Not only in the event he comes back well from surgery, but also in the event that the Rockets decide “Hey, we have a humongous expiring contract and could get something to help a win-now team with it.”
The question is, well, what could the Rockets get for McGrady’s contract that they don’t already have? The Rockets have a great big man, they have 2 other good bigs, with Wafer, they have 1 very good wing and 2 solid wings. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry aren’t stars, but they’re both young and I think at the very least you can make a case that Lowry is going to be a solid point guard when he gets accustomed to the lineup. The Rockets are at the point where they need to swing for the fences with the Yao core, and McGrady’s injury has left them with a question: are they willing to wait and hope that McGrady comes back by the 2010 playoffs, or are they going to deal him away and try and find more of a sure bet? If the Rockets hold onto McGrady, Wafer makes a lot of sense and I’d probably go up to Landry’s deal last year trying to keep him. If they find another wing scorer in a deal for him, Wafer is a luxury that the Rockets won’t be able to afford.
There are only six players out there that I find as plausible trade ideas for the Rockets. These players are difference makers that are on teams that are either hemorrhaging money and in-need of long term contract dumps, or teams that are going nowhere in the present and could use the relief for 2010. In order of how much I like them as fits: Kevin Martin, Danny Granger, Caron Butler, Vince Carter, Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash. There are some other elite guys that could possibly be out there, but that is the entire list of people I can see as elite and also construct a plausible argument for the other team saying yes.
Just about any trade would involve McGrady, Aaron Brooks, a first round pick, money and/or other considerations, and the acceptance of ugly returning contracts. The Rockets need to go ahead and do it anyway if they can. With Martin, it’d be Kenny Thomas and Beno Udrih. With Granger, Troy Murphy or Mike Dunleavy. With Vince, Trenton Hassel. Those are all relatively straight-forward trades that add another wing scorer. Martin is my preference because he is the best pure shooter of the three of them and I think he would fit best with Yao in a two man game. Then, we go Granger for age, and finally Carter. During normal circumstances, I don’t think Martin or Granger would be available, but the recession may force some hands here.
I isolated Butler out of this group because the Wizards are a complete disaster and I wonder if they wouldn’t think about just pushing the reset button entirely. Here is the wind-up on the wild-ass trade proposal: McGrady and Brooks to Washington, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler to Houston. The Wizards flip their huge mistake contract, pick up a decent young guard for their trouble, and they can start on trying to create a team that can actually get past the second round in the East. The Rockets get their third wing player, and if they can get ANYTHING out of Arenas, they become extremely dangerous. It works a lot better on paper, because I don’t know if there are enough balls to go around in this setup, but it’s a scenario that I think makes a lot of sense for both sides. At least until you tell Les Alexander “all you’d have to do is add $120 million in future payroll to someone who has played 13 games in the last 2 years.”
Finally, the two Suns players. Nash is the unlikeliest player on the list to be dealt, because he already has a team option this year. If they wanted to dump salary, they probably would just not pick up the option. However, small but distinct possibility that they pick him up and use him to get rid of Leandro Barbosa (or possibly Jason Richardson) if Robert Sarver continues penny-pinching. I worry about Nash losing effectiveness with age, and I worry about his ability to play in the half-court as well. With Amare, it comes down to the ball: if he can’t handle deferring to Shaq, how is he going to deal with deferring to Yao? More importantly, no championship team in recent history has revolved around two big men. The recipe is one part big man, two parts little man. Both of these options are a bit less appealing than the four above them, but they probably still beat hoping on McGrady.
Even when he’s basically been put out to pasture by the local fans and media, the Rockets most important player is still Tracy McGrady. Just now, it also could ride on what they could get for him.
Three points.
1. The economy is bad, but not so bad that the Pacers and Kings will simply dump Granger and Martin for cap relief (David Stern will give bail out money before he lets his league turn into the 1997 Marlins x 10).
2. Ron Artest will NOT sign with the Rockets for merely the MLE. Why? Because he already feels insulted by his current contract. Remember how much he complained last year when he wrongly decided not to opt out? He wants to get paid. And we want a *happy* Artest on our team. Signing him for three years (to expire when he is 32) is ideal.
3. We do not want a lame duck Scola next year. If we can sign him now for value — you do that before his market value becomes artificially inflated.
1: I agree that they probably won’t trade them. Merely that you can make a plausible scenario for them to be dealt due to the financial situations in Sacramento and Indiana right now. David Stern didn’t step in when the Grizzlies dumped Pau Gasol for nothing, did he?
2: I said he would sign for a little over the MLE, not the MLE. This is the maximum that I think the market will bear for him, and if he isn’t satisfied by that, he continues to have no one but himself to blame. He could always just retire. Who is “we”?
3: Again with this we. Luis Scola is not going to make a fuss about his contract. He will also be over 30 by the time the contract is over, with a lot of wear on his treads from Olympic and world tournament experience. You can look to lock in for “value”, but keep in mind that A LOT of “value” signings end up blowing up in the face of the GM. Andres Nocioni was a value signing. Beno Udrih was a value signing.
Not to mention that there is almost no market inflation available. Teams are not saving up 2010 cap dollars for Luis Scola.
Nice article.
You just blew my mind with the Rockets/Wizards trade idea. I think it makes sense for both teams, and it leaves the Rockets with a ridiculously strong, win-now type of team. I mean, you’ve got a starting 5 of Arenas, Butler, Artest, Scola and Yao, with solid bench players like Battier, Brent Barry, Lowry, Von Wafer, and Landry. Barring injuries, I don’t see how any team could possibly beat them in a 7-game series.
Oh and Arenas is healthy already, so I wouldn’t worry too much about that. He’s been practicing at full speed for weeks now. He simply doesn’t feel like playing for the Wizards this year, and apparently they’re ok with that… winning games doesn’t seem to be a priority for them right now.
Well, I’d be worried more about future injury prone-ness. For someone to play only thirteen games in two years…that tells me to not rely on them at all.
However, with Butler you have someone who can pick up the slack and IS consistent. I think of Arenas as a lottery ticket in this trade. If he comes back and is healthy and consistent, that basically guarantees a top two seed in the West. If not, you still have Butler and that top three can still stack up with anyone.