The process of predictions: AL
Here’s the thing with predictions, whether it’s the NCAA tourney or the start of one of the many wonderful sports seasons: it always seems a little bit forced. We’ve advanced with our statistical projections far enough that at this point we have a pretty good idea of the teams that should win. You have your odd three or four team race, sure. In baseball this year, both Eastern divisions have a pretty good share of plausible winners. The NL Central and the AL West, however, are almost universally handed to the Angels and Cubs. In ESPN.com’s preseason predictions 17 of 21 experts gave the AL West to the Angels, and 16 of 21 gave the NL Central to the Cubs. The main challengers to the Cubs and Angels are a little flawed, sure, but I have no problems envisioning a different winner in either of them. At some point, I think the rate of predictions towards the “favorites” is a little flawed.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the postseason predictions, where 15 of the 21 ESPN World Series winners came out of the AL East. The standing hypothesis is that the AL East was the strongest division in baseball last year, and this offseason the Yankees injected themselves with a ton of free agent talent. Well sure, that’s plausible. How many of the last ten World Series winners were really the best team in baseball though? The Phillies probably weren’t the “best” team in the National League last year, the 2006 Cardinals were barely over .500, and it’s become increasingly common for a Wild Card team to represent it’s league (or even win) in the World Series. So why pick the favorites to win it all? Shouldn’t it be completely varied? It’s a seven game series, anything can happen and anyone can become a hero.
That said, even though we’re already a few games into the season, let me throw some of my very own predictions onto the wall and see how they stick.
AL East
1) Tampa Bay
2) Boston (WC)
3) New York
4) Toronto
5) Baltimore
Like I said, this should probably be the race to follow in the AL. My gut instinct at around the time Spring Training started was that the Rays and Yankees would make it, with Red Sox nation left weeping. Alex Rodriguez’s injury and steroid use threw that into question for me. Not only is the month or so he’ll be out a big deal, but he’s so self-conscious about himself that I felt like we were in for a down year from him after the steroid allegations came out. I admit that is purely subjective, but to me it seems like there isn’t a star in baseball who feeds on his public perception as much as Rodriguez, and as the boos further cement themselves in to his head, I just think he’ll be bothered initially and slump a bit.
So unfortunately, I had to take the Red Sox to the playoffs with me because I just can’t see another challenger to win 95 games in the AL Central or West. I say unfortunately because it has come to my attention that I actually dislike the Red Sox more than any team in baseball, and it’s actively because of their fan base, which straddles the line between drunken frat boy and smug-guy-who-must-yell-about-his-team-to-make-up-for-the-fact-that-he-has-no-real-life, with a heaping helping of human interest “old man who lived to see them win in 2004″ story thrown in. I realize that any fan base is prone to bandwagoners when they’ve been as successful as the Red Sox have been the last few years, but when you combine the fact that they have the audacity to have a card carrying “nation” and the fact that Boston being the preeminent college town in America means that every year we get a huge new wave of young douchebaggy Red Sox fans, you have a recipe for an annoying fan base that could last for aeons. So yeah, I might be a wee bit biased on this one, and even I can’t see a way for them to miss the playoffs. I don’t think they are as good as the Rays though, as the Rays have a deeper lineup, a better high-water mark as full as overall bullpen performance, and a slew of backup plans that don’t have the same sort of question marks as the Sox carry (see: John Smoltz and Brad Penny).
As far as Baltimore and Toronto, I know that Baltimore is the trendy pick to finish fourth cause they’ve built a nice little young core quietly, but I think if there’s one thing that JP Riccardi has proven he can do, it’s build a middle of the pack ballclub that can play enough good defense to make his pitchers look better than they really are. Maybe 77 wins versus 73 for the Orioles? There’s not a huge difference but I think the Orioles are out of their league as far as mediocrity experience goes. Plus the Jays could always go out and get Mark Loretta at the trade deadline.
AL Central
1) Detroit
2) Chicago
3) Minnesota
4) Cleveland
5) Kansas City
I really liked how the Tigers spent the offseason being aggressive about their lineup. They shipped in Laird from Texas, who should be an upgrade on Pudge. They brought in Adam Everett, who if recovered from injuries, should be at least decent for them factoring in defense. Miguel Cabrera should be better after his monster second half, they got rid of the declining Sheffield. I don’t know what to make of some of the bad years they had on that pitching staff last year, but between Verlander, Bonderman, Porcello, Jackson, and Galaragga theres the makings of a good rotation. They don’t have a great bullpen, but I don’t know if they’ll have to in this division. I think they can take it. I also don’t understand why people don’t agree with the decision to bring Porcello up. Pitchers are on a completely different timetable than hitters are, in my opinion. If my pitcher can go get MLB outs right now, I want him up there before theres a chance I lose some of his innings to injury. Is it fiscally insane to give up a year of a good cost-controlled young pitcher instead of letting him get his feet wet in AA? Maybe so, but in a division this tight, every game counts. Maybe two months of Porcello is the difference between playoffs and not.
Minnesota would be my preseason favorite if I had any idea what to expect with Mauer, but you can play glass half-empty on almost their entire lineup besides Morneau. They don’t have any dominant starters, but they don’t have any bad ones either. I sort of feel like if you replaced Mauer and Morneau with say, Yadier Molina and Lyle Overbay, the Twins would have the most mediocre team in baseball and would be a deadlock to finish 81-81 and in third place. I’m too concerned about Mauer to put them any higher than third right now.
The White Sox, PECOTA’s folly, should get a mini-bounceback from Konerko. If their aging lineup core can hold it together for one more season, they could easily take the division. However, I don’t trust Contreras or Colon. For that matter, I really don’t believe Gavin Floyd is going to put together another good season. I could rationally talk myself into these guys winning the division, but what really bothers me about them is they spent all off-season cutting payroll. If they’re close, are they going to go out and get what they need at the deadline? I dunno. I think they could make it but I don’t like them as much as Detroit.
After about six seasons picking them to win the crown or flounder in last, I’ve learned that no matter what I pick the Indians to do, they do the opposite. Right now, it looks like they have more holes in their rotation than the White Sox, and while I think you can construct a compelling argument where they win the division, it pretty much relies on Cliff Lee repeating his Cy Young form…and even before his first two starts of this season, I would’ve bet against that.
As for the Royals, Dayton Moore has been an unmitigated disaster of a GM. Trading for Mike Jacobs and blocking a wonderful prospect with a wonderful name, signing Kyle Farnsworth to a ridiculous contract, giving up Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp, the Jose Guillen signing. The only risk he’s taken thats really worked out is signing Gil Meche, and I’m pretty sure that it failed in just about every alternate universe. I don’t buy the hype on this team.
AL West
1) Los Angeles
2) Texas
3) Oakland
4) Seattle
Before the Angels managed to sign Bobby Abreu for the sickeningly low price of 1 year, $5 million, I was leaning towards giving one of the Rangers or A’s a chance to hang with them. Even still, I think the Angels rotation depth is cause for concern at this point. If I’d made my picks after the season had started, I would be much more inclined to give Texas a second look. The Angels still have a capable lineup though, built around Vladimir Guerrero, Abreu, Mike Napoli, and a bunch of guys who should be average for their positions. They’ve also handily proven the prediction systems wrong for the last few years, so I’m willing to give them a little more leeway.
The Rangers are the same team they’ve been since roughly the time Nolan Ryan retired: great offense, suspect pitching. The A’s would be much easier to build a case for if they’d had ANY KIND of capable starting pitching around. If they were still able to lug Harden out, I think they’d be a dangerous team. The Mariners…umm…well, they will try to uphold the rules of the game and not get too embarrassed.
Awards
MVP: Miguel Cabrera Haha just kidding, Dustin Pedroia wins because he is so so scrappy.
Cy Young: John Danks
Rookie of year: Matt Weiters
Playoffs
Angels over Rays
Red Sox over Tigers
Angels over Red Sox
I think it’s about time the statistical blip of the Red Sox ownership of the Angels in the postseason unravels. Joe Buck’s bored voice will exclaim something along the lines of “The Red Sox…had owned the Angels…almost like the Giants are owning the NFL right now, right Tim?” and the over/under of Nick Adenhart montages by major sports outlets is 8. Monday: The NL.
