I have many weird abilities, but perhaps the strangest one is that I seem to have the magic touch in picking the NBA draft lottery results. I called the Bulls last year, called the Bucks the year they got Bogut, and called the Raptors winning Bargnani. I’m not a draft oracle, and I’m not getting insider updates from David Stern, I just sort of zero in on a team for whatever reason. One of the big keys lies in the percentages, which for this year look like this:

* Sacramento Kings (17-65) – 25.0%
* Washington Wizards (19-63) – 17.8%
* Los Angeles Clippers (19-63) – 17.7%
* Oklahoma City Thunder (23-59) – 11.9%
* Minnesota Timberwolves (24-58) – 7.6%
* Memphis Grizzlies (24-58) – 7.5%
* Golden State Warriors (29-53) – 4.3%
* New York Knicks (32-50) – 2.8%
* Toronto Raptors (33-49) – 1.7%
* Milwaukee Bucks (34-48) – 1.0%
* New Jersey Nets (34-38) – 0.9%
* Charlotte Bobcats (35-47) – 0.7%
* Indiana Pacers (36-46) – 0.6%
* Phoenix Suns (46-36)- 0.5%

Any given team only has up to a 25% chance of winning, and all three of the top teams have only a 60% chance to nab a Top 3 pick. So while the odds are good that two of the top three teams will be picking in the top three, the odds are also good that at least one straggler crashes the party. Basically, the draft lottery is like if someone gives you LeBron James to win the NBA scoring title versus any other player in the field. There’s a pretty good chance LeBron takes it, but not as good a chance as the odds of every other player in basketball combined has at winning the scoring title. The Bulls had a 1.7% chance in 2008, the Blazers had a 5.3% chance in 2007, Toronto had a 8.8% chance in 2006, and Milwaukee had a 6.3% chance in 2005–you’re not looking to find someone with impossible odds, so I think you can eliminate anyone who isn’t better than 1.0%, but the odds are likely that one of those other non-top 3 teams will jump up. A sub-1% chance has happened once, when Orlando won the #1 overall pick at 41-41 following the 92-93 season, but the odds are so stacked against it that I doubt we’ll see it again in our lifetime.

That leaves us with Oklahoma City, New York, Golden State, Minnesota, Memphis, and Toronto as our spoiler teams. Of those, I get weird vibes about the last three.

Memphis has been extraordinarily unlucky. Since 2001, Memphis has landed a 4-6 pick 4 times, but never a top 3 pick. And even going back to the Vancouver days, they landed the #2 pick three years in a row, but ended up with Stromile Swift, a pouty Steve Francis who was immediately dealt for a pupu platter, and Mike Bibby. Then of course, you add on to that the fact that when Vancouver and Toronto came into the league, they were immediately shafted in the draft lotto by being given no chance to win it, and the Grizzlies seem cursed at it.

Now, Oklahoma City is the obvious winner as far as both need for a big man, hometown kid, great fanbase, and a potentially great team. But it seems a little too obvious for me that Blake Griffin winds up there. Golden State and New York are the two teams that I’m drawn to on the list. New York would be great for the league, because if they became a playoff team this year then suddenly LeBron has a lot more to think about. However, as we’ve seen the last few years, the trend hadn’t really been to reward big market teams until Rose fell into the Bulls laps.

So, calling my shot, I think Golden State moves up to the Top 3. They haven’t had a Top 3 pick since 2002, when they wound up with…Mike Dunleavy. Ew. The last time they had #1 overall, they picked Joe Smith. Also not such a great pick. I definitely like Washington to stay in the Top 3, and then I’ll say the Kings are the third team although I don’t feel strongly about that. Perhaps both Golden State and New York will move up.

I realize that this post is completely unscientific and has no basis in reality. It’s just my gut feeling, and I hope to be able to pull it out and say “I told you so”.

Whether you’re in full-fledged panic mode like most of the folks at DGDB&D or you’re ready to rationalize like Chris at Houston Diehards, I think it’s safe to say that a majority of the picks the Texans took here were head-scratchers as far as common sense goes. That said, I’m sick of complaining and TE jokes, so as an exercise, I’m going to shadow draft the Texans picks on nothing but common sense and mock draft ratings. As the year ends, we’ll look back on these and see who made the smarter moves. Right now, I tend to stand closer to the rationalization pack, but I also think that it shows a grave overconfidence by the FO in the personnel groups that the main Texans bloggers, as a group, think are problem areas. Particularly at safety.

Anyway, shadow draft rules:
1) No trading down – Trust me, if I ran this draft, we’d be Patriots-ing the whole day, but because we don’t have the inside knowledge of what packages were available, I’m not going to sit here and use what we do know as rationale that we could’ve made the same deals.
2) I can’t assume anyone we picked lasts to the next pick – I’m not going to say “Antoine Caldwell lasts to us in the fourth round, then we take him”. If I replace one of our picks, he doesn’t last to our next one. This way, I have to make an actual pick between the two guys.
) I will assume we have gathered enough draft intelligence to have a vague idea of who will be off the board by our next pick – I mean, I’d hope so anyway.
4) I won’t just draft a bunch of tight ends and be funny – But damn, it’s tempting.

ROUND 1, PICK #15 – Michael Oher, LT, Ole Miss.

Why hold off on showcasing the big differences of my thinking versus the FO’s? Duane Brown was abysmal last year in pass protection at LT, and I’m not willing to walk into a season without any real insurance against it, particularly now that Rosencopter has been replaced and Schaub’s health is probably even more important. Oher and Brown can battle it out in camp. If Oher wins, Brown can shift to guard where his mauling skills will be better utilized, and if Brown wins, we have a good developing young player to back up both tackle positions.

Other considerations: Clay Matthews would be my pick of the two USC linebackers, but I don’t really like either of them too much. Oher is the best value here and the best player available, IMO, not to mention he fills a need in my book.

ROUND 2, PICK #46 – Connor Barwin, DE/OLB, Cincinnati

This pick continues to grow on me, and I’ll agree with the Texans brass on it. Clint Sintim was selected just one pick ahead of us, and I’d definitely take him over Barwin, but since I can’t trade, I do love Barwin’s pass-rush skills and think he’s going to be a good fit for the Texans. I guess he’d probably be playing a bit more linebacker for me here without Cushing, but he knows what his real job is: giving the pass blockers something to worry about besides Mario.

Other considerations: Max Unger would give us a lot of versatility, but since we already put a first rounder into the offensive line, we’ve got to make a defensive pick here. I’m willing to hope (and with hindsight, figure) that a safety I like lasts until the third round. The only other real consideration is a DT, and while I think Fili Moala is vastly underrated in the context of this draft, especially since he was rated #1 on most boards before the season started, I’ll take the pass rusher over the run stuffer since the Texans offense will probably be explosive enough to have some shootouts.

ROUND 3, PICK #77 – Rashad Johnson, FS, Alabama

The Texans have needed a real safety for the entirety of the franchises existence. Johnson doesn’t have elite measureables, but he’s got instincts and cover ability, and he’s great value at this point in the draft. I also really like Antoine Caldwell, who we really picked here, but safety wins out over center here, as much as I dislike Chris Myers. I’m looking forward to not having to find a starting safety on the street after training camp with this pick.

Other considerations: Juaquin Iglesias at this point is easily the highest player on my board, but Johnson is close and we don’t need another wide receiver. I’m sure he’s not crying too hard anyway now that he has Jay Cutler throwing to him. And obviously, Caldwell makes a lot of sense too.

ROUND 4, PICK #112 – Chip Vaughn, S, Wake Forest

Not one, but TWO actual safeties! Vaughn slipped into the fourth, but he plays the run well and he’ll give the Texans their first safety that can actually deliver a hit in…well, we already went over this. Vaughn isn’t the best player available here, but since we have another pick relatively soon and know that he could go between it, we snag him here.

Other considerations: Well, most of the other considerations are going to be around for the Vikings pick, but special mention to DJ Moore who I also considered worthy of nabbing here. In the end, I think between Dunta Robinson, Fred Bennett, Jacque Reeves, and Antuan Molden, we have enough invested in CB to see how it all shakes out this year before we ascertain whether we need more help.

ROUND 4, PICK #122 – Andre Brown, RB, North Carolina State

Brown had the best speed score in the entire draft, he’s got a good bit of bulk on him, and he hasn’t carried the ball so much that you worry about him pulling up lame any time soon. Slaton needs someone to spell him, and this isn’t such an early pick that you feel like you’re overdrafting in the Kubiak system. My only concern with him is that he was injured twice in college, but thats overridden by pure talent in the fourth round.

Other considerations: Ultimately I’m mad that all the clean DT’s with a chance of playing nose go here, but I just can’t justify reaching for them this high. As I said to soctty (or however you spell it) in one of the open draft threads at BRB, with no chance at Raji I feel like Mario’s princess is in a different castle on this one.

ROUND 5, PICK #152 – James Casey, TE, Rice

While I didn’t enjoy the Cook pick quite as much, and I think pass-catching TE’s are a bit overrated by the majority of the NFL draft boards in comparison to good blockers, I do think this is a fine pick by Smithiak. Great value in round five, gives us a lot of versatility, and fits in well as both a goal-line option and insurance against OD holding out or not getting signed. Local kid too, although ultimately that means Jack diddly, it’s nice to see.

Other considerations: Marcus Freeman would be a nice hedge bet, since Barwin may end up playing more DL than LB, but ultimately I’m relatively comfortable with Adibi and Diles as long as they stay healthy. I passed on Macho Harris for the same reason I passed on DJ Moore. Bear Pascoe was also considered, more for his name than any actual productivity. Really though, I like this Casey pick a lot.

ROUND 6, PICK #188 – A.Q. Shipley, C, Penn State

Considered near Caldwell and Jonathan Luigis as middle-round centers on most mocks, Shipley slides down because of concerns about his short arms. We’ve seen centers be discounted for reasons like this before and end up being great late round picks. Matt Birk, for instance. Shipley is plenty agile, which would be a great fit in a zone blocking scheme. Also, like most NFL defensive lineman, I think he’d have a great chance of pushing Chris Myers right out of a job (ziiiiing!).

Other considerations: Coye Francis is yet another corner I pass on, and James Davis gets passed even though I think he’d be a good fit for us too, mainly because we already drafted a RB.

ROUND 7, PICK #223 – Chris Baker, DT, Hampton

A massive 326 pound NT, Baker slipped all the way out of the draft due to character concerns and small school syndrome. I’m not exactly enamored with him, but NT is a massive need area and I’m alright taking a risk in the seventh round. Hell, he can’t be any more of a dick than Travis Johnson, can he?

Other considerations: Finishing this thing in less than two hours.

A lot of this comes down to simple common sense, and I’m a little perplexed that more teams don’t follow it, at least for the first five rounds. Think about it this way: you pick low-risk guys that are high on a lot of draft boards, and if they bust, you at least can say that nobody thought he’d be a huge bust. Instead, the Texans are tied to a lot of DB’s that nobody was high on.

I’m happy to take this draft over our current one, and I look forward to measuring it after the season, although I’m hopeful that the Texans make me look stupid.

The Texans draft has been pretty scrutinized around the blogosphere so far, and while I can’t necessarily say that I am happy with Brian Cushing, I did like the Connor Barwin pick and I do think the FO deserves some leeway on my personal subjective opinions due to past instances of good drafting. Also, the fact that I do not watch college football at all.

Anyway, my initial reaction with Cushing is that the Texans probably should’ve gone with Matthews over him, particularly due to his injury-proneness and his mediocre pass rush in comparison to Matthews. However, I don’t buy that the two-down player tag sticks to him, particularly since he played for a team that essentially had an NFL-calibre defense last year and will have four linebackers drafted. Add in the fact that our run defense was abysmal last year, and I can’t be too down on this pick. I think he might have a little more upside then the stats indicate.

Barwin, on the other hand, is the pure pass rusher that this team has needed next to Mario Williams for the last three years. Not that I necessarily buy the authority of this study based on the short amount of data, but according to this analysis, he may be the best pass rusher in the draft.

Now, I’m not 180′ing my stance on us needing a safety. We still need a safety really bad, and thankfully the one I wanted most is still on the board into round three. However, the most important part of a pass defense is still a good pass rush. This pick grew on me really fast, and I could see us all in Barwin jerseys by this time next year. Things definitely could’ve been done better, particularly missing out on trading down in the first round like Cleveland and New England did, with all these teams wanting to come up. But I’m happy with Barwin and I can accept Cushing given our organizations draft record and the fact that OLB was a need position. Overall, I’d give the first two rounds a B-.

Anyway, here comes the part of the draft the Texans have exploited pretty well the last few years. This is what my board looks like at our positions of need:

DT:
The top two guys in mock draft land who are still around are Jarron Gilbert and Alex Magee, Gilbert has youtube hype with the jump out of the pool stunt, but both of these guys are more like DE/DT tweeners while the Texans need more of a run stuffer to stick next to Amobi Okoye. I don’t think the talent is there at this point, just drafting one of the top few guys left on the board is going to cost one of the fours, which might be a reach. The other problem is that Chris Baker, the Hampton NT that probably has the most upside left of the DT’s, has character issues, and the Texans have always been very reluctant to draft guys that fit that bill. Probably the best option left is Terrance Taylor out of Michigan, if you think he can play the nose, you’ve got to make a move for him in the fourth. A late round sleeper I like is Vaughn Martin out of Western Ontario, who is inexperienced but has the tools to be a good nose.

S:
The guy I wanted in Round 2, Rashad Johnson, is still on the board. I would trade one of the fours to get up and grab him if need be, if not, I think the Texans would be foolish to not draft him in the third round. Chip Vaughn is the only other safety near Johnson, but he doesn’t have the same kind of coverage skills, he’d be more of a SS. I’m very interested to see where the Texans go here, but my main concern is something along the lines of hope that we’ll use a high pick on a safety so the organization finally can say they’re trying hard to find a safety. A lot of the “best available” DB’s are corners, as guys like Macho Harris and DJ Moore are still out there.

LT:
Jamon Meredith is still around, he was right around the 2nd-3rd borderline and he has the agility to fit in well in our zone blocking scheme. That said, I think the Texans are set with three active tackles and my projection of this as a need is based more on how much I worry about Duane Brown than it is what the Texans will actually do.

C:
No Unger or Mack, but there are a few mid-round SEC centers that the Texans could look into in Jonathan Luigis of Arkansas and Antoine Caldwell of Alabama. Both of these guys should become serviceable NFL centers and if they make it to the fourth or fifth rounds the Texans would be well-served replacing Chris Myers.

OLB/DE:
Both already represented. I would say that you’d have to be intrigued if Michael Johnson lasted into the fourth, and perhaps Jason Williams of Northern Illinois could be a decent sleeper prospect. The rest of the remaining OLB/DE don’t offer enough of a pass rush to really be worth more than 6th/7th rounder in my opinion. Especially since Lawrence Sidbury is sort of a one-year wonder.

RB2:
I rate Andre Brown and Rashad Jennings about equally, dig them both but I wouldn’t take them over Rashad Johnson in the third. I also think James Davis of Clemson is a solid enough sleeper to not get totally caught up in those two guys. I don’t think as highly of Shonn Greene (one good year).

The Texans will probably be in a good position if they address two of these areas with their first three picks. What kinda hurts is that the remaining depth in this draft that has “second round value” is focused mostly in WR and TE’s, although I think the pass-catching TE is a little overrated in general by the mock drafters/fans in comparison to the blocker. These are our two strongest positions, so it’d be sort of a reach to go there. That said, I would not be heartbroken at all to see Juaquin Iglesias in a Texans uni, I think he’d be an excellent scheme fit.

To begin with, we need to handle team needs. Don’t know who we should draft if we don’t know the weak spots, right? Here, in my mind, are the positions that could use upgrades:

DT: The Texans can point to Amobi Okoye as someone with a chance to be dominant, but Travis Johnson has been dreadful both as a pass rusher and as a 4-3 nose tackle. Frank Okam might have potential but Richard Smith and co. never gave him a chance to showcase it. Tim Bullman is undersized and actually plays defensive end fairly frequently. The Texans got rid of a lot of the black holes on their roster, but Travis Johnson is the biggest one still remaining.

S: The Texans haven’t had a safety worthy of praise in the franchises entire history. Resigning Eugene Wilson and Nick Ferguson was the equivalent of Rick Smith shrugging his shoulders and saying “well, there aren’t any real answers in free agency either.”

LT: Duane Brown was abysmal as a rookie. Does he have upside? Maybe. He probably couldn’t have been worse than he was last year. That said, the NFL is a now league, and he was a huge hole in the Texans offense last year. Will the Texans draft someone really high to push him? No. But it will be a need in my mind.

C: Chris Myers is a canny center, but he gets pushed backwards way too easily since he gives up too much size and strength to big NFL DT’s. I see this as the one position on offense that the Texans could spend a Day 1 pick on.

OLB: Two very raw and passable young players in Zach Diles and Xavier Adibi, but they both are coming off injury and a speedy OLB who can pass rush is something that has eluded the Texans since Kailee Wong stopped being good. They also have always lacked LB’s who can go to the sideline and stop sweeps.

DE: Love it or hate it, the Antonio Smith signing probably pushes this out of the Top 3 as a need for the Texans. Between Smith, Mario, Earl Cochran, and Bullman, there is a solid enough base here. Though you can never have enough good linemen and these non-Williams guys don’t have a ton of pass-rush ability.

RB2: Steve Slaton has the body type that could benefit from being in a time share with another good running back, though I doubt that happens with a first day pick. Since most NFL teams have begun to embrace the “RB as fungible commodity” mindset I think it won’t be too much of a stretch to see some decent RB’s make it to day two.

Now, most people would cop out here and tell you that since it’s their dream draft, they can forecast whatever fake trades they want. I’m going to do it scenario-wise, within certain guidelines.

SCENARIO 1: THE TEXANS TRADE UP INTO THE TOP 10

I don’t really see this as a feasible scenario, because the Texans need to worry about having good players at each position before they worry about having great players at certain ones. However, in the event that they do trade up, the only player I’d be happy with them targeting is Boston College DT BJ Raji. He’s the only first-day DT in the draft that can really claim to be a true run stopper other than Ron Brace, who I am down on because I think he benefited from Raji more than Raji did from him. Every other defensive player other than Aaron Curry is going to have a chance to slide down somewhere near 15, and I think the cost to get up to Curry is too prohibitive for the Texans to consider. I wouldn’t be thrilled with this outcome, but at least this way the Texans would be getting one of the few defensive difference makers in the draft.

STAYING AT #15:

The Texans blogosphere has essentially made this a two person race between Malcolm Jenkins and Clay Matthews Jr, who both fill holes in my needs. My personal preference is to trade down and stockpile picks, but I think at this point the QB melee is going to be pushed up into the Top 10 and keep us away from the aggressive suitors. Perhaps Tampa Bay would trade up to keep Josh Freeman away from the Jets, but this is looking more and more unlikely to me. I’d keep trading down even if I got much less than the draft chart, because I don’t see much of a difference between 15 and 30 in this draft. Give me a 4th or a 3rd and I’ll deal down 4 or 5 spots at a time.

My personal preference between Jenkins and Matthews is Matthews, though thats sort of like a choice between brussels sprouts and spinach to a ten-year-old boy. Maybe I’d be higher on Matthews if he didn’t look like the painting in Ghostbusters 2.

The other options that are tossed around are Chris Wells, which I find an improbable pick given the Texans RB philosophy, and one of the other USC linebackers: Rey Maulaga or Brian Cushing. I’m uncomfortable with moving DeMeco Ryans around just for the sake of drafting Rey, and I can’t really differentiate between the two OLB’s that much. Like both BFD and Matty have said, I have problems getting excited to get either of these guys at this spot, but we may be shoehorned into it with how the Mark Sanchez situation has developed. Robert Ayers has also gotten some love, and all I have to say about that is he reminds me a lot of recently released Anthony Weaver.

I’ll also throw in that I’d love to see Michael Oher selected here if he’s available, but I know that’s just my little dream at this point. Maybe next year I’ll have a horde of Duane Brown haters so I can say “I told you so.”

BETWEEN 15 AND 46

Should the Texans be able to trade down, here is my list, in order, of players I’d most like to have on the team that I don’t think will be available at 46.

C Alex Mack, California
OLB Clint Sintim, Virginia
CB Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest
S Louis Delmas, Western Michigan
CB/S Sean Smith, Utah

Those would be my five targets, but I especially love the first three. Sintim reminds me a lot of DeMeco, Alphonso Smith is being dropped solely on height, and when it comes down to skills versus size, I’ll take skills if we’re not in the top half of the first round. Alex Mack would fill a huge hole, is a road grader, and would give us enough “Secret World Of” headlines to make my inner twelve-year-old happy. The other two, I like but I’m not as high on as the guy I’d pick at 46.

AT 46

If I’m running the draft, I’m tabbing Rashad Johnson, FS, Alabama. As I explained with Alphonso Smith, I’m a big fan of polish versus body outside of the Top 15. Johnson would give the Texans a good quarterback in the secondary, and his pass defense would be a godsend after having to put up with CC Brown and company for the last few years. Another guy I like is Oregon center Max Unger, who rates right around Mack in most mocks but sadly doesn’t have as good of a name.

The reason I haven’t said a lot about the NFL Draft in this here blog goes three-fold:
1) I trust the Texans judgement over mine as far as drafting goes. They may not be the best drafting team over the course of history, but since Kubiak has been here they haven’t missed too badly on anyone asides from Duane Brown (and he could still turn right).
2) NFL Draft overload syndrome. I don’t want to churn out weekly updates on something so mundane and overhyped by the Worldwide Leader.
3) I don’t give half a rip about college football. I realize this puts me in the vast minority among both NFL fans and people who were born in Texas, but if you can’t even come up with a playoff system, your sport is unwatchable in my eyes. I haven’t seen any of these players play, and I’m doing this simply by draft site research and my own views on team building.

Anyhoo, tune back in on Sunday when I get into Day 2 and try to find more guys I like and talk about Day 1.